Mastery Predictive Assessments: Multi-State Predictive Validity Report 2025
Instructure’s research team recently evaluated the predictive validity of Mastery Predictive Assessments (MPAs) across five states (Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi, and North Carolina) during the 2023–2024 school year. Analyzing data from over 32,000 students in grades 3–8 and high school, the study found strong correlations between students' performance on MPAs and their state summative assessments in math, ELA, science, and social studies.
Key findings:
-
High predictive correlations: Average correlations around .80 for grades 3–8 and .70 for high school across subjects, meeting the accepted threshold for predictive validity.
-
Strong classification accuracy: MPAs correctly identified student proficiency on state tests 84% of the time in grades 3–8 and 82% in high school, exceeding the 75% benchmark.
-
Broad representation: Results held across student demographics and states, reinforcing MPAs as a reliable benchmark tool for identifying students needing intervention.
Download the full report to explore detailed data tables, methodology, and actionable insights for your district.