Mastery Predictive Assessments: 2022-23 High School Predictive Validity Study Brief
District leaders don't want to add another test to the calendar unless it actually helps students progress and gives teachers efficient data they can use.
This predictive validity study answers the question: does Mastery by Instructure predict how high schoolers will perform on state end-of-course tests? Researchers analyzed more than 54,000 students across nine districts in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee, and found strong correlations and high classification accuracy in Algebra I, English II, Biology, and U.S. History.
Predictive validity results by course
Across Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee, Mastery Predictive Assessments held up well against end-of-course state tests in every core subject. The table below shows how closely predicted proficiency tracked with actual state test results, by course.
| Course | Correlation with state test | Classification accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Algebra I | 0.68 to 0.70 | 72% to 80% |
| English II | 0.73 to 0.78 | 78% to 87% |
| Biology | 0.70 to 0.77 | 77% to 83% |
| US History | 0.74 to 0.76 | 77% to 81% |
English II, Biology, and U.S. History cleared both the 0.70 correlation threshold and the 75% classification accuracy threshold in every state studied. Algebra I showed more variation, meeting one threshold or the other in most states but not always both.
